Bitcoin research
without the noise.

Weekly deep dives and real-time commentary on Bitcoin markets. Macro, on-chain, and market structure — written for investors who want analysis, not hype.

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Everything in one place — no newsletters scattered across platforms, no Discord, no noise. Plus the ₿ Conviction model portfolio, updated with every Weekly Deep Dive.

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Commentary

Real-time · When it matters

Short-form analysis published when markets move. Breaking down key events, institutional signals, and inflection points as they happen — not the next morning.

  • Geopolitical and macro catalysts
  • Short squeeze and liquidation analysis
  • Sentiment readings as contrarian signals
  • Cross-asset signals and divergences
  • On-chain and market structure shifts
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Weekly Deep Dives

Every Thursday

Comprehensive weekly synthesis connecting macro, on-chain data, and market structure into a coherent picture — plus explicit positioning and what to watch next week.

  • Weekly scorecard with key metrics
  • Macro overlay: Fed, geopolitics, equities
  • On-chain analysis: Realized Price, 200W MA
  • Market structure: perps, DEX, stablecoin flows
  • Portfolio positioning and allocation
  • Watchlist for the week ahead
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Crypto Portfolio

Refreshed weekly

The ₿ Conviction model portfolio — live allocation across BTC, ETH, and select positions, with the reasoning behind each change documented in the corresponding Weekly Deep Dive.

  • Current target weights at a glance
  • Cash vs. deployed capital breakdown
  • Change log tied to each weekly issue
  • Rationale rooted in macro and on-chain data
  • No day-trade noise — conviction positioning only

What we've been covering

A sample of recent commentary and weekly issues.

Bitcoin Drifts as Regulatory Path Narrows Before Inflation

Tuesday's session reminded the market that crypto does not get to opt out of macro. The weakness was not idiosyncratic this time — it traveled alongside a broad selloff in equities, a quietly narrowing window for the year's biggest crypto…

MSTR Refills Cash Cushion Ahead of Wednesday's Inflation Print

MicroStrategy's Monday 8-K landed, and it did the one thing the market needed it to do: it broke the feedback-loop fear that had been quietly compounding for two weeks. The filing is not a green light to chase — it is a release valve.…

Quarterly Altcoin Spotlight: PUMP Trades at 1.4x Sales as Critics Miss the Cash Flow

A Solana-based memecoin launchpad is earning roughly $1m per day in revenue during a bear market, has paid creators $350m over the trailing year, owns 85% of its segment, and has already burned 36% of its circulating supply via buybacks.…

Bitcoin Slides Toward Fair Value as Strategy Starts Selling Coins

Bitcoin is in its second capitulation of the bear market — $65.8k, down 20% from the May 10 high and 47% off the cycle top. The ETF tape has flipped to its worst 30-day outflow stretch on record, Strategy sold BTC for the first time ever…

What we actually analyze

No price predictions. No buy/sell signals. Structured analysis across the areas that move markets.

Macro

  • Fed policy and rate expectations
  • Geopolitical risk and energy markets
  • Recession probability and labor data
  • Cross-asset signals (equities, bonds, DXY)
  • Financial conditions

On-Chain

  • Realized Price and 200-week moving average
  • Fear & Greed as contrarian indicator
  • Stablecoin supply and flows
  • BTC dominance and alt rotation
  • Cycle positioning vs. prior drawdowns

Market Structure

  • Perpetual futures: OI, funding, liquidations
  • CEX vs DEX volume shifts
  • Institutional positioning and ETF flows
  • Spot volume trends
  • Emerging infrastructure layers

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