Bitcoin research
without the noise.

Weekly deep dives and real-time commentary on Bitcoin markets. Macro, on-chain, and market structure — written for investors who want analysis, not hype.

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Everything in one place — no newsletters scattered across platforms, no Discord, no noise. Plus the ₿ Conviction model portfolio, updated with every Weekly Deep Dive.

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Commentary

Real-time · When it matters

Short-form analysis published when markets move. Breaking down key events, institutional signals, and inflection points as they happen — not the next morning.

  • Geopolitical and macro catalysts
  • Short squeeze and liquidation analysis
  • Sentiment readings as contrarian signals
  • Cross-asset signals and divergences
  • On-chain and market structure shifts
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Weekly Deep Dives

Every Thursday

Comprehensive weekly synthesis connecting macro, on-chain data, and market structure into a coherent picture — plus explicit positioning and what to watch next week.

  • Weekly scorecard with key metrics
  • Macro overlay: Fed, geopolitics, equities
  • On-chain analysis: Realized Price, 200W MA
  • Market structure: perps, DEX, stablecoin flows
  • Portfolio positioning and allocation
  • Watchlist for the week ahead
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Crypto Portfolio

Refreshed weekly

The ₿ Conviction model portfolio — live allocation across BTC, ETH, and select positions, with the reasoning behind each change documented in the corresponding Weekly Deep Dive.

  • Current target weights at a glance
  • Cash vs. deployed capital breakdown
  • Change log tied to each weekly issue
  • Rationale rooted in macro and on-chain data
  • No day-trade noise — conviction positioning only

What we've been covering

A sample of recent commentary and weekly issues.

Washed-Out Momentum Sets Stage for Mining Sector Rebound

The accelerating selloff across AI infrastructure beneficiaries — including publicly traded bitcoin miners — appears increasingly driven by positioning rather than fundamentals, with historical precedent and credit market resilience…

Patient Capital Deployment Delivers Near Triple-Digit Alpha Over Bitcoin

Disciplined cycle management and a willingness to hold cash through volatile markets have produced realized gains that nearly double bitcoin's own returns, proving that the old formula of patience, conviction, and risk awareness still…

Flat Core CPI Resets Crypto Backdrop While Ethereum Leads

June's core CPI came in flat month-over-month — the first 0.0% reading since May 2020 — materially improving the near-term macro setup for liquidity-sensitive assets by increasing the likelihood that rates markets begin to unwind hawkish…

Quarterly Altcoin Spotlight: Solana Revenue Craters as Green Shoots Emerge in RWAs and Perps

Solana posted its weakest fee quarter since late 2023 as speculative activity dried up across the board. But beneath the headline numbers, real-world asset tokenization exploded, perpetual futures volumes surged, and early signs of a…

What we actually analyze

No price predictions. No buy/sell signals. Structured analysis across the areas that move markets.

Macro

  • Fed policy and rate expectations
  • Geopolitical risk and energy markets
  • Recession probability and labor data
  • Cross-asset signals (equities, bonds, DXY)
  • Financial conditions

On-Chain

  • Realized Price and 200-week moving average
  • Fear & Greed as contrarian indicator
  • Stablecoin supply and flows
  • BTC dominance and alt rotation
  • Cycle positioning vs. prior drawdowns

Market Structure

  • Perpetual futures: OI, funding, liquidations
  • CEX vs DEX volume shifts
  • Institutional positioning and ETF flows
  • Spot volume trends
  • Emerging infrastructure layers

Simple, transparent pricing

Both plans include full access to all commentary and weekly deep dives.

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