Bitcoin research
without the noise.

Weekly deep dives and real-time commentary on Bitcoin markets. Macro, on-chain, and market structure — written for investors who want analysis, not hype.

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Everything in one place — no newsletters scattered across platforms, no Discord, no noise. Plus the ₿ Conviction model portfolio, updated with every Weekly Deep Dive.

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Commentary

Real-time · When it matters

Short-form analysis published when markets move. Breaking down key events, institutional signals, and inflection points as they happen — not the next morning.

  • Geopolitical and macro catalysts
  • Short squeeze and liquidation analysis
  • Sentiment readings as contrarian signals
  • Cross-asset signals and divergences
  • On-chain and market structure shifts
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Weekly Deep Dives

Every Thursday

Comprehensive weekly synthesis connecting macro, on-chain data, and market structure into a coherent picture — plus explicit positioning and what to watch next week.

  • Weekly scorecard with key metrics
  • Macro overlay: Fed, geopolitics, equities
  • On-chain analysis: Realized Price, 200W MA
  • Market structure: perps, DEX, stablecoin flows
  • Portfolio positioning and allocation
  • Watchlist for the week ahead
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Crypto Portfolio

Refreshed weekly

The ₿ Conviction model portfolio — live allocation across BTC, ETH, and select positions, with the reasoning behind each change documented in the corresponding Weekly Deep Dive.

  • Current target weights at a glance
  • Cash vs. deployed capital breakdown
  • Change log tied to each weekly issue
  • Rationale rooted in macro and on-chain data
  • No day-trade noise — conviction positioning only

What we've been covering

A sample of recent commentary and weekly issues.

Crypto Absorbs Historic Yield Spike as CPI Looms

The front end of the Treasury curve repriced violently today, with the 2-year yield posting one of its largest single-session increases in nearly a decade. Markets now assign roughly 70% odds to a September hike and are pricing…

Golden Cross Confirmed as Social Trading Platforms Reshape Speculative Landscape

Bitcoin's golden cross confirmed 70 days after the June 30 low, eight days faster than the 2023 analog, while the $78-92k cost-basis cohort has become the largest cluster onchain. Social trading platforms are generating real protocol…

Larger Buybacks Fail to Satisfy as Bond Market Demands More Firepower

The government expanded its long-end liquidity support operations to $6B per round — a 50% increase over August's floor — but risk assets sold off anyway. Bitcoin briefly rallied on the announcement before reversing lower, and the 10-year…

Quarterly Altcoin Spotlight: Decentralized AI Compute Faces a Demand Problem Despite Surging Inference Costs

Bittensor aims to be a decentralized marketplace for AI services, but six years in, the network has just 129 active subnets with flat growth, subnet creation spending dropped 48 percent quarter-over-quarter, and daily transactions fell 26…

What we actually analyze

No price predictions. No buy/sell signals. Structured analysis across the areas that move markets.

Macro

  • Fed policy and rate expectations
  • Geopolitical risk and energy markets
  • Recession probability and labor data
  • Cross-asset signals (equities, bonds, DXY)
  • Financial conditions

On-Chain

  • Realized Price and 200-week moving average
  • Fear & Greed as contrarian indicator
  • Stablecoin supply and flows
  • BTC dominance and alt rotation
  • Cycle positioning vs. prior drawdowns

Market Structure

  • Perpetual futures: OI, funding, liquidations
  • CEX vs DEX volume shifts
  • Institutional positioning and ETF flows
  • Spot volume trends
  • Emerging infrastructure layers

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